GENERAL FORECAST: This winter,
spruce seed specialists such as White-winged Crossbills and Pine Siskins
should be concentrated in eastern and western North America
where cone crops are heaviest. Northwestern Quebec and Ontario have the least spruce
cone abundance with only poor to good crops. Conifer crops including on
ornamentals are heavier in southern Ontario and could attract finches.
Common Redpolls may move into southern Ontario because birch seed
crops are low to average in northern Canada. A small flight of Evening Grosbeaks is expected in the
East
because of increasing numbers due to expanding spruce budworm outbreaks in Quebec. Pine Grosbeaks also
should move south in small numbers because the mountain-ash berry
crop is below average in northern Ontario. Expect a scattering of Red
Crossbills across the East this winter. See individual forecasts for the
details.
INDIVIDUAL FORECASTS:
Forecasts
apply mainly to Ontario and adjacent provinces and states. Three
irruptive non-finch passerines whose movements are often linked to
finches are also discussed. Follow finch wanderings this fall and
winter on eBird.
PINE GROSBEAK: This largest of
the finches should move south in small numbers to Algonquin Park and
probably farther south. A small flight is indicated because the
native mountain-ash berry crop is below average across the boreal
forest in Ontario and the crop may become depleted forcing grosbeaks
southward. If Pine Grosbeaks come south they will find plenty of
European mountain-ash berries and ornamental crabapples in southern
Ontario and elsewhere. They relish sunflower seeds at feeders.
PURPLE FINCH: Many (not all) should
migrate south out of Ontario this fall because cone and deciduous
tree seed crops are generally low in northern Ontario. Purple
Finches winter in
numbers in the north only when the majority of tree seed crops are
bumper. An easy way to tell Purple Finches from House Finches is by
checking the tip of the tail; it is distinctly notched or slightly forked
in Purple and squared off in House Finch. Purples prefer sunflower seeds
at feeders.
RED CROSSBILL: Expect a
scattering of Red Crossbills in the East this winter. Red
Crossbills comprise at least 10 "call types" in North America. Some
may be full species, but most types are normally impossible to
identify without analyzing recordings of their flight calls. Matt
Young (may6 at cornell.edu) at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology is
studying Red Crossbills and he will identify types if you send him
your recordings. The following summary is from Matt who reports "a nice
sprinkling of Types 1 and 2 Red Crossbills in central New York State.
Type 2s appear to be more common this year across much of the East.
Type 10s are occurring from the Great Lakes across the Adirondacks
and northern New England into the southern Maritime Provinces. An
early September report of Type 3 in the Great Lakes area makes it
the first in more than two years after the massive Type 3 irruption
in 2012-13." Red
Crossbills, probably Type 2, were seen this summer in the "pine
belt" of northeastern Algonquin Park. Look for Type 2s in White
Pines in Algonquin along the Barron Canyon Road (no park services)
accessible from Highway 17 west of Pembroke.
WHITE-WINGED CROSSBILL: This
crossbill moves back and forth like a pendulum across the boreal
forest looking for bumper spruce cone crops and irrupts south only in years of widespread cone crop failures.
They will be scarce in most of Ontario because cone crops are low.
They should occur this winter in Atlantic Canada including
Newfoundland, which has a heavy spruce cone crop. It is hoped that
White-winged Crossbills will move into the northern New England
States and the Adirondack Mountains in New York State where spruce
cone crops are very good.
COMMON REDPOLL: Similar to last
winter, expect a southward movement because birch seed crops are low
to average across the boreal forest. Birch crops are much better in
southern Ontario south of Algonquin Park so watch for redpolls in
birches, in European Black Alders, and in weedy fields. At feeders
redpolls prefer nyger seeds served in silo feeders. Redpolls are
difficult to study in the field because they are so flighty, but
much easier to study at feeders. Watch for the rare "Greater" Common Redpoll (rostrata)
from Baffin Island and Greenland. Greaters are
larger, browner, longer tailed and bigger billed. For ID and photos
see links #2 and #3 below.
HOARY REDPOLL:
Hoaries
occur mixed in with flocks of Common Redpolls. The
"Southern" Hoary Redpoll (nominate subspecies exilipes)
breeds south to northern Ontario and is the usual subspecies
seen. "Hornemann's"
Hoary Redpoll (subspecies hornemanni) was formerly considered a
great rarity south of the tundra. There is an old specimen from
southern Ontario in the Royal Ontario Museum, and more recently it has been documented
by
photos with 10 accepted records by the Ontario Bird Records Committee. For ID and photos of Hornemann's see links
#2 and #3 below.
PINE SISKIN: Expect very few
siskins in Ontario this winter because White Spruce crops are
generally low. Siskins likely will be concentrated in western Canada which has heavy spruce cone crops. There
were high
numbers of siskins in southern Yukon in early September. They also should occur in
New York’s Adirondack Mountains, the northern New England States, and the
Atlantic
Provinces which have very good spruce cone crops. Their wheezy calls
are the best way to identify siskins flying overhead. At feeders
they prefer nyger seeds in silo feeders.
EVENING GROSBEAK: Breeding numbers
have been building in Quebec linked to a greater food supply from
increasing outbreaks of spruce budworms, so a small southward flight
is likely. Tyler Hoar recently saw small flocks of Evening Grosbeaks
roaming in widely separated areas of northern Ontario and western
Quebec. Tyler reported that "central Ontario feeders may hold these
birds from coming south in sizable numbers." However, this
spectacular grosbeak should be watched for in eastern Ontario, the Adirondacks and northern New England. The feeders at the Visitor
Centre in Algonquin Park usually have grosbeaks in winter. Evening
Grosbeaks prefer black oil sunflower seeds.
THREE IRRUPTIVE PASSERINES:
Movements of these three passerines are often linked to the boreal
finches.
BLUE JAY: The flight of
jays is fairly strong this year along the north shorelines of Lakes Ontario and Erie.
The strength of annual flights appears to be linked to the size of acorn, beechnut
and hazelnut crops. Acorn crops were good in some areas and poor in
other areas of the province. The beechnut crop failed in most areas
and the hazelnut crop was average
in 2015.
RED-BREASTED NUTHATCH: This
nuthatch is not moving south in numbers this year indicating that
White-winged Crossbills and Pine Siskins also won't irrupt
southward. A heavy cone crop on Balsam Fir in many areas may
explain why this nuthatch is more sedentary this year. Dennis Barry told
me years ago that when fir cones disintegrate in the fall it causes
millions of seeds to become lodged in the dense upper branches.
These lodged seeds provide an abundant winter food for nuthatches
and probably finches.
BOHEMIAN WAXWING: Expect a moderate
southward and eastward flight this winter because mountain-ash berry
crops are average in the boreal forest. Bohemians should get east to
St. John's, Newfoundland, where mountain-ash (dogberry) crops are
excellent. Bohemians now occur annually (historically more
infrequently) in southern Ontario, southern
Quebec, northern New York State, and elsewhere in the east. Their more regular winter occurrence
now may be
related to the abundance of introduced buckthorns (Rhamnus)
which produce
large berry crops almost every year.
If they venture south,
Bohemians will
also find large crops
(some bumper) on European Mountain-ash and ornamental
crabapples in many areas.
WHERE TO SEE FINCHES: Algonquin
Park is an exciting winter experience about a 3.5 hour drive north of
Toronto. Cone crops are very poor in the park so finch numbers
will be very low to absent. However, feeders at the Visitor Centre (km 43)
should attract Common Redpolls (watch for Hoaries), Evening and Pine
Grosbeaks. The Visitor Centre
and restaurant are open weekends in
winter. On winter weekdays, the facility is open, but with limited
services (no restaurant is available, but snacks and drinks are
available for purchase). Birders can still call ahead to make
arrangements to view feeders by calling 613-637-2828.
The bookstore has one of the best selections
of natural history books anywhere. Be sure to get Birds of
Algonquin Park (2012) by retired park naturalist Ron Tozer. It is
one of the finest regional bird books ever published. The nearby
Spruce Bog Trail at km 42.5 and Opeongo Road at km 44.5 are the best
spots for finches and other species such as Gray Jay, Boreal
Chickadee, Spruce Grouse and Black-backed Woodpecker. |
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: I thank staff of
the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, and the many
birders/naturalists whose tree seed reports allow me to make annual
forecasts: Christian Artuso (Manitoba), Dennis Barry (Durham Region,
Haliburton, Sudbury District), Angus Baptiste (Grand Lac Victoria,
Quebec), Eleanor Beagan (Prince Edward Island), Peter Burke (Chapleau
and Thesselon, Ontario), Joan Collins (Adirondacks, New York State),
Pascal Côté (Tadoussac Bird Observatory, Quebec), Bruce Di Labio
(Eastern Ontario), Charity Dobbs (Ontario Tree Seed Plant), Cameron Eckert (Southern Yukon), Bruce Falls
(Brodie Club, Toronto), Walter Fisher (Rosetta McClain Gardens
Raptor Watch, Toronto), Marcel Gahbauer (Eastern Ontario and
Calgary, Alberta), Michel Gosselin (Canadian Museum of Nature,
Gatineau, Quebec), David Govatski (New Hampshire), Leo Heyens (Kenora,
Ontario), Tyler Hoar (Northern Ontario, Northwestern Quebec,
Laurentians, Northern Minnesota), Kris Ito (French River, Ontario),
Jean Iron (James Bay and Northeastern Ontario, Edmonton, Alberta),
Bruce Mactavish (St. John's, Newfoundland), Brian Naylor (Nipissing
District, Ontario), Justin Peter (Algonquin Park, Ontario, Gatineau
Park, Quebec), Fred Pinto (Nipissing District, Ontario), Rosamund
and Jim Pojar (Smithers, central British Columbia), Michael Runtz
(Algonquin Park, Ontario), Harvey and
Brenda Schmidt (Creighton, Saskatchewan), Don Sutherland (Southern
James Bay, northeastern Ontario), Ron Tozer (Algonquin Park and
Presqu'ile Park, Ontario), Declan Troy (Alaska), Mike Turner (Haliburton
Highlands, Ontario, Yukon and Northwest Territories), Richard
Welsman (Rosetta McClain Gardens, Toronto), Alan Wormington (Point
Pelee, Ontario). I particularly thank Matt Young of The Cornell Lab
of Ornithology for information on Red Crossbills and tree seed crops
in the East. Jean Iron made many helpful comments, proofed the forecast,
and hosts it on her website. |